The statistics and engineering behind evaluating language models, situation first. Companion to the eval explainer videos, the same way the coding practice set goes with the coding videos.
Start hereWhich tool, when covers
the three different things called “p”, where the probability in a
confidence interval comes from, when to use McNemar, when to use Wilson,
and one table that maps each situation to its tool.
Videos
Full video: eval statistics and platform in twelve chapters (46:05)
Watch
on Google Drive (private to the owner) ·
Context file: the whole
narration plus what is on screen, as one text file. Attach it to a chat
with Claude or ChatGPT and ask about any part. Drive has no chapter
menu, so drag to the time below; each chapter also shows its title on
screen.
0:37 1. A score is an estimate: standard error
and confidence intervals. Read more
5:24 2. Small samples and extreme rates: the
Wilson interval.
Read more
9:49 3. Two models, same questions: pairing,
McNemar and the p-value. Read more
15:25 4. Metrics without a formula: the
bootstrap, and grouped questions.
Read
more
19:25 5. Can this benchmark see the change?
power and sample size. Read more
23:03 6. Sampling many answers: pass@k done
right. Read
more
26:23 7. Many benchmarks, many checkpoints:
multiple comparisons. Read more
30:01 8. Can you trust the judge? agreement and
Cohen's kappa. Read more
33:37 9. From votes to a ranking: Bradley-Terry
and Elo.
Read
more
36:51 10. Leaked or worn out? contamination, and
comparing different question sets. Read more
40:20 11. Model or pipeline? detecting
evaluation degradation. Read more
43:49 12. Which tool, when: the whole map.
Read more
Pilot: four ideas (14:50), superseded by the full video
Watch
on Google Drive (private to the owner) ·
Context file: the
whole narration plus what is on screen, as one text file. Attach it to a
chat with Claude or ChatGPT and ask about any part.
0:31 1. A benchmark score is an estimate:
standard error, confidence interval, Wilson. Read
more
4:20 2. Comparing two models: pairing, McNemar,
what a p-value means. Read more
8:13 3. The bootstrap, and questions that come
in groups.
Read
more
11:13 4. Many benchmarks, many checkpoints:
multiple comparisons. Read more